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Gnar, Renwik, Kapotth and Eusebio Congo

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  预计明阳转债上市首日定价区间为114-115 元,可以参与申购,二级市场可以配置。

        【发行情况】本次明阳智能总共发行不超过17.00亿元可转债。优配:每股配售1.232 元面值可转债;设网下、网上发行,T-1 日(12-13 周五)网下申购、股权登记日;T 慧能 日(12-16 周一)网上申购;T+2 日(12-18 周三)网上申购中签缴款。配售代码:764615;申购代码783615。

  【条款分析】本次可转债发行期限6 年,票方等时息为递进式(0.4%,0.6%,1.0%,1.5%,1.8%,2.0%),到期回售价为108 元(含最后一期利息)。主体评级为AA,转债评级为AA,按照6 年AA 中债企业债 YTM 4.93%计算,纯债价值成实宗 为84.75 元,YTM 为2.14%。发行6 个月后进入转股期,初始转股价12.66元,12 月12 日收盘价为12.64 元,初始平价99.84 元。条款方面,15/30+90%的下修条款,15/30+130%的有条件赎回条款,30/30+70%的回售条款。可转债潜在稀释比率约为9.73%。

  【公司基本面】公司是全球领先的风电整机制造商。目前公司已经建立了国内“五大”电力公司以及民营电力集团为主导的稳固市场客户群,投运遍布全国200 多个风力发电场项目,产品远销至保加利亚、印度、罗马尼亚、巴基斯坦、南非等全球各地。2019 俱舍宗年前三季度,公司实现营业收入72.1 亿元,同比增长58.87%,归母净利润5.14 亿元,同比增长98.59%。近几年来公司毛利率有所下滑,但净利率小幅上升。目前公司市值为174 亿元左右,PE 贤首宗TTM25.6 倍,估值水平合理。

  【发行定价】绝对估值法,假设隐含波动率为35%左右,以2019 年12 月12日正股价格计算的可转债理论价格为114~115 元。相对估值法,目前同等平价附近的高能转债和贵广转地藏经 债转股溢价率分别为14.87%和15.79%,考虑到公司当前股价对应的转债平价低于面值,转债发行规模较大,我们预计明阳转债上市首日的转股溢价率区间为【14%,16%】,当前价格对应相对估值为114~116 元。综合考虑,预计明阳转债上市首日价格在114~115 元之间。

  【申购建议】明阳智能总股本13.80 亿股,前十大八圣道股东持股比例67.69%。如果假设原有股东40%参与配售,那么剩余10.20 亿元供投资者申购。假设网下申购户数为8,000 户,平均单户申购金额为3 亿元,网上申购户数为100 万户,平均单药师净土 户申购金额为100 万元,预计中签率在0.03%附近。考虑到当前转债平价低于面值,公司盈利状况良好,且是全球领先的风电整机制造商,建议可以参与一级市场申购,二级市场可以配置。